Predk Whitepaper

1. Introduction

Global markets increasingly trade around events: elections, macro prints, regulatory shifts, protocol launches and AI milestones. Yet most on-chain systems focus on perpetuals tied purely to asset prices. Predk combines binary prediction markets with event-linked perps so traders can express views on:

• Bitcoin hitting $200K before a given date,
• US CPI prints or rate-cut paths,
• AI agent share of on-chain volume,
• local outcomes in Manila, Ho Chi Minh City, Singapore, Hong Kong and beyond.

The protocol is designed to settle on Monad L1, with wallet-native access powered by Privy for social / email onboarding while keeping self-custody intact.

2. Vision & Design Goals

Predk aims to be the vertical feed of yes / no and perp markets for the world's next headlines. Core goals:

• Event-first UX. Markets are phrased as clear questions with timeframes, resolution criteria and visual odds.
• Local + global rails. Manila and Ho Chi Minh matter alongside BTC, CPI and US elections.
• Composable perps. Funding curves link to event indices so traders can hedge or speculate on probabilities, not only prices.
• AI-native surfaces. AI agents can both route flow (agent-managed orders) and be subjects of markets (benchmarks, adoption).

3. System Architecture

The Predk stack can be decomposed into four main layers:

1. Settlement layer. Prediction and perp contracts deployed on Monad L1 handle escrow, position accounting and settlement.
2. Oracle & data layer. Outcome resolution and event indices (elections, CPI, AI benchmarks, city indices) are sourced via a mix of on-chain and off-chain oracles.
3. Routing & matching layer. AMM curves, optional order books and routing logic connect user orders from the front-end to protocol liquidity.
4. Interface layer. The main feed, local markets, perps view and create flow surface markets as a vertical, tappable feed.

Users authenticate via Privy (email, social or wallet). Privy can provision embedded wallets while still allowing advanced users to connect external wallets for direct on-chain control.

4. Market Types

Predk is designed around a few core market primitives:

• Binary markets. YES / NO markets that pay 1 or 0 depending on the resolved outcome. These are used for elections, macro prints, regulatory events and local questions.
• Scalar markets. Continuous outcomes (CPI level, TVL, market caps) mapped to a payout range. These can provide additional hedging tools for macro or protocol-specific events.
• Event-linked perpetuals. Perps whose funding rate or payoff is tied to the implied probability of an event, described in Section 5.

Markets are grouped by vertical – crypto, macro, AI, and local – and are displayed in cards with odds, volume, spark-lines and social features (chat, likes, bookmarks, share).

5. Event-Linked Perpetuals

Traditional crypto perps reference spot indexes (e.g. BTCUSD). Predk introduces event perps, where:

• The underlying index is a probability that an event occurs (e.g. BTC > $200K before 2026).
• Funding rates converge to the difference between perp price and the reference event index.
• When the event resolves, the probability snaps to 0 or 1, causing a final move and closing funding.

This creates a continuum between pure prediction markets and leverage products. Traders can hedge predicted events while liquidity providers earn funding for taking the other side.

6. Data, Oracles & Resolution

Secure event resolution and index construction are central design challenges. Predk anticipates a layered oracle approach:

• Canonical sources. Elections: official electoral commissions. Macro: national statistics agencies or central banks. Crypto: reputable exchange indices.
• Oracle networks. Decentralised oracle networks relay data on-chain, with fallback feeds and dispute windows where appropriate.
• Resolution policies. Each market has a written, human-readable resolution rule and a machine-readable schema for oracles and UIs.

The goal is to minimise discretion while allowing clear escalation paths if data sources diverge or become unavailable.

7. $PREDK Token & Fees

$PREDK is envisioned as the primary unit of account and fee token for the Predk protocol on Monad. A possible design:

• Trading fees. A protocol fee, denominated in $PREDK, is charged on fills and routed to the treasury / ecosystem vault.
• LP incentives. Liquidity providers may receive a share of fees or token incentives for providing depth on key markets.
• Staking / safety modules. In future, a portion of $PREDK could backstop oracle or protocol risks via opt-in staking modules.

Any actual token design, launch, distribution or economics will be subject to legal, regulatory and commercial review. This section is descriptive and not an offer or guarantee.

8. Governance & Upgrades

Governance must balance agility (shipping new markets and features) with safety and regulatory caution. A staged approach:

1. Early phase. Limited set of curated markets governed by a small core team with explicit risk and compliance controls.
2. Scaling phase. Formal proposals for new market classes, oracle integrations and parameter changes, potentially using a token-weighted or council model.
3. Mature phase. Gradual decentralisation of upgrade keys and treasury control to on-chain governance, subject to applicable law.

9. Risk, Compliance & Users

Prediction markets and perps are inherently risky and may be regulated differently across jurisdictions. Predk's design assumes:

• High volatility. Users should expect the possibility of total loss of capital.
• Geographic and product restrictions. Certain regions, user types or market themes may be restricted to comply with applicable law.
• User responsibilities. Users are responsible for understanding local laws and should consult professional advisers where needed.

For detailed risk disclosures, see the Disclaimer and Terms of Use.

10. Roadmap

A high-level, non-binding roadmap for Predk might include:

1. Phase 1 – Interface. Ship the vertical feed, local markets pages, account views and create-market UX on test markets.
2. Phase 2 – On-chain integration. Connect to live markets and perps on Monad, with curated oracle feeds and limited jurisdictions.
3. Phase 3 – Event perp listings. List a first wave of event-linked perps for BTC, CPI, AI benchmarks and key local indices (e.g. Manila, Ho Chi Minh).
4. Phase 4 – Agents & APIs. Add APIs and routing hooks so AI agents can trade, hedge and quote markets programmatically.

Timelines, features and priorities are subject to change based on technical progress, regulatory feedback and community input.

11. Appendix & Links

For further context on the current Predk interface and product thinking:

• Homepage feed – global + local yes / no markets.
• Local markets – Manila, Ho Chi Minh, US, Singapore, Hong Kong and more.
• Perps page – event-linked perp concepts for BTC, macro and AI.
• Create a market – logged-in Predk users can propose new markets.

This whitepaper is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute legal, tax, financial, or investment advice and does not represent a commitment to build or deliver any specific feature. Any actual deployment of Predk products will be subject to technical feasibility and applicable law.